Experian Commercial Pulse Report | 3/25/2025
Experian has released our March 25th Commercial Pulse Report. In addition to mixed economic conditions, we focus in on the growing problem of small business financial fraud.
Watch Our Commercial Pulse Update
Macroeconomic Highlights
In February, inflation dipped to 2.8%, with core inflation hitting its lowest level since 2021. The Fed held interest rates steady, reflecting ongoing caution about the economic outlook. Unemployment remained stable at 4.1%, and rising wages helped sustain consumer spending. Retail sales saw a modest rebound, though year-over-year growth slowed, and consumer sentiment dropped 27% from last year. The Experian Small Business Index rose slightly to 41.5 but remains down from a year ago, as easing inflation and credit conditions offer cautious optimism for small business lending.
The Rising Threat of Small Business Financial Fraud
According to the latest Experian data, financial fraud against small businesses has increased by 70% since the start of the pandemic, costing billions annually. As fraud tactics become more sophisticated and digital channels continue to expand, the pressure on lenders and small businesses is mounting.
During the pandemic, e-commerce surged to 16.4% of total retail sales. Although it briefly declined post-pandemic, this share has returned to its peak by the end of 2024. This shift has dramatically increased the size of consumers’ digital footprints, making them more vulnerable to cybercrime. A staggering 8.8 billion records were found on the dark web in 2024 alone—more than double the amount reported in 2022.
Among the most concerning statistics from the report:
- 65% of financial institutions reported an increase in fraud incidents in 2024.
- 46% of small business loan applications showed signs of first-party fraud.
- 31% of small businesses experienced fraudulent lenders or scams during the lending process.
- AI-driven scams are projected to result in $40 billion in losses by 2027.
- 80% of fraud events now occur on digital channels such as online or mobile banking.
- 64% of institutions plan to boost their fraud prevention investments in 2025.
These figures illustrate just how pervasive and costly commercial fraud has become. Yet, there is reason for cautious optimism. Experian notes that while fraud levels remain elevated, there are signs that the trends are beginning to normalize compared to the extreme conditions seen during the peak of the pandemic. This includes a reduction in “bust-out” fraud—scenarios where a business intentionally takes on debt it has no intention of repaying.
Financial institutions are responding by investing in AI-powered analytics and enhanced fraud detection platforms. These tools are proving critical in detecting and intercepting fraudulent applications in real time. Additionally, more organizations are forming cross-sector partnerships and joining fraud consortia to share intelligence and improve collective defenses.
To stay ahead of the latest trends:
✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis.
✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
Want to learn more? Download the full Commercial Pulse Report for March 25, 2025.
Experian Commercial Pulse Report Explores Implications of Rising Premiums As the year draws to a close, one issue looms large for millions of small business owners: the rising cost of healthcare. According to the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report, small business survival may soon hinge on a single factor — whether enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies are extended into 2026. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update The Clock Is Ticking on ACA Subsidies The American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act temporarily expanded ACA subsidies, helping make coverage more affordable for millions. But those enhancements are set to expire at the end of 2025 — a policy shift that could unleash a wave of economic strain. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that if these subsidies lapse, individuals who purchase insurance through the ACA marketplace could see a 75% increase in premiums. Why does this matter so much for small businesses? Because half of all ACA marketplace enrollees are small business owners, entrepreneurs, or their employees. Coverage Is Shrinking, and Costs Keep Climbing Smaller businesses have historically been less likely to offer health insurance benefits than their larger counterparts. In 2025, only 64% of businesses with 25 to 49 employees offer health benefits — the lowest level ever recorded. And while large employers are still required by the ACA to offer coverage to full-time workers, they too are feeling the pressure. Since 2010, employers have gradually reduced the share of healthcare premiums they cover, even as deductibles have risen by 164% for single coverage plans. The result? Business owners are being squeezed from both sides — by rising insurance costs and a more financially stressed workforce. The Ripple Effects Could Be Widespread If enhanced subsidies aren’t renewed, many small businesses may have no choice but to: Shut down operations Cut staff Shift jobs into larger organizations that can offer coverage That would be a blow not only to small business dynamism but also to broader economic sectors. Reduced consumer spending could hit industries like retail, real estate, and manufacturing, while healthcare providers face payment cuts and job losses due to shrinking coverage pools. What’s Next? With Congress set to vote on subsidy extensions before the end of the year, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The outcome will likely define affordability, access, and entrepreneurship for years to come. For small business owners, now is the time to assess your coverage plans, understand your employee needs, and prepare for potential cost increases. For policymakers and industry leaders, it’s a critical moment to ensure healthcare reforms continue to support the backbone of the U.S. economy — small businesses. Experian continues to provide actionable data to help businesses, lenders, and policymakers navigate uncertainty. To access the full Commercial Pulse Report and explore more insights on small business credit and sector-specific performance: ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
Explore retail industry risk trends for Q4 2025 inventory gaps and credit shifts impact CRO strategies in the latest Commercial Pulse Report.
Logistics credit risk is rising according to Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse report, signaling financial strain.
